Gold, Silver, and the New Commodity Cycle: Why the Market Is Only at the Beginning
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Gold and silver have recently risen significantly, buoyed by structural factors that are likely to continue supporting the precious metals sector in the coming year.
Macroeconomics drives gold – structurally, sustainably, and increasingly digitally
Gold is currently benefiting from a rare combination of classic macroeconomic drivers: low real interest rates, expansionary monetary policy, and ongoing inflation and currency risks are reducing the opportunity costs of the precious metal and strengthening its role as a hedging instrument in an environment characterized by geopolitical tensions and fragmented global markets. This trend is reinforced by the continuing high demand from central banks, especially in emerging markets, which are deliberately expanding their gold reserves in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Market observers assume that individual countries – above all China – are accumulating significantly more gold than is officially communicated. This structural demand is withdrawing physical supply from the market and supporting prices in the long term.
In addition, gold is gaining in importance due to new market structures. With its gold-backed token XAU₮, stablecoin provider Tether underscores the growing interconnection between physical gold and digital financial infrastructure. The tokenization of real assets increases liquidity and accessibility and appeals to new investor groups for whom traditional gold investments have previously been associated with operational hurdles. For the gold market, this means additional physical demand and a sustainable structural expansion of the investor base – gold is thus maintaining its role as a strategic reserve asset even in the digital age.
Silver: Industrial metal with precious metal DNA
Silver is currently following a different, but equally exciting narrative. In addition to its role as a monetary metal, silver is increasingly benefiting from strong growth in industrial demand. The expansion of solar energy in particular, but also electronics and electromobility, are driving up demand structurally.
This is offset by a supply problem: the silver market has been experiencing a structural deficit for several years. Around 70 percent of global silver production is a by-product of gold and copper mining. This makes a short-term expansion of supply virtually impossible. Even with rising prices, production can only be increased with a delay – a classic setup for sustained price pressure.
Here, too, the outlook remains positive: the expansion of renewable energies is politically desired and capital-intensive, and there is no sign of a decline in demand.
Juniors: High leverage, high volatility
The junior mining segment is particularly dynamic. Exploration companies react disproportionately to rising gold and silver prices and offer the greatest leverage within the sector. At the same time, they are characterized by inefficiencies: low analyst coverage, information-poor markets, and high dependence on management quality.
Historical commodity cycles show that junior-heavy portfolios can significantly outperform producers in bull markets – but at the price of higher volatility and deeper drawdowns in weak phases. The approach is therefore clearly cyclical and more comparable to a private equity risk profile than to traditional large-cap mining funds.
Conclusion
The current commodity cycle is driven by structural changes such as geopolitical realignment, the energy transition, and growing monetary risks. Gold and silver are at the center of this, complemented by strategic industrial metals.
The Commodity Capital Global Mining Fund deliberately positions itself in an opportunity-oriented manner with a high junior share and focuses on quality stocks, M&A potential, and structural supply bottlenecks. For investors who want to use commodities as a strategic return driver, the fund offers targeted access to the beneficiaries of the current commodity cycle.
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Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Before investing, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the fund's prospectus and KID.
Webinar Recording: Gold Run – A Perfect Setup for Mining Stocks
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Those who can do the math have a clear advantage: the figures show that mining stocks have so far only followed the rise in precious metal prices to a limited extent – the valuation gap has widened further. Better late than never is therefore the recommendation of this webinar for investments in mining stocks or corresponding funds.
The recording of the Drescher & CIE AG webinar is available here (available in German):
https://diefondsplattform.de/mediathek/detail/m/goldrun-steilvorlage-fuer-minenaktien
In this webinar, you will hear contributions from Dana Kallasch (Commodity Capital AG), Frank Biller, CFA (HanseMerkur Trust AG for HAUCK AUFHÄUSER LAMPE), Armin Sabeur, CFA (OPTINOVA Fonds for honovi INVEST), and Andreas Böger (Impact Asset Management GmbH).
Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Before making an investment decision, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the official prospectus and key investor information document for the fund.
Webinar Recording: Commodity Update – 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
In this webinar, Tobias Tretter, portfolio manager at Commodity Capital AG, offers exclusive insight into developments in the commodity markets in 2025 and provides a well-founded outlook on the most important trends and challenges for 2026.
In this webinar, you will get insights into:
- Which market trends are emerging for 2026
- What challenges commodity markets could face
- How investors can position themselves strategically to benefit from future developments
To view the recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnrvh2JwJRM&t=1s
Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and may vary significantly. Before investing, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the fund's prospectus and KID.
Tether’s Gold Purchases Highlight the Trend Toward Digital Gold Solutions
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
What factors are currently driving the precious metals boom, particularly the price development of gold and silver, and why?
Dana Kallasch, CEO and co-founder of Commodity Capital, answers these and other questions in a recent interview with Christian Bayer, published on November 27, 2025, on Substanz Investor.
Click here for the interview (available only in German): https://substanzinvestor.de/2025/11/27/value-und-growth-im-detail-2/
Webinar Recording: "Commodities and Future Economic Themes – Mining as an Engine of Growth"
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
The raw material that is currently on everyone's lips is gold. For many, it has long been the epitome of capital preservation and security. And, of course, returns, which in the recent past have been on a par with the MSCI World Index and significantly above it.
However, many (precious) metals have now become a fundamental, elementary component of economic growth. Commodities play a central role, especially in future-oriented topics related to the Magnificent 7. Here, the focus is on lithium (batteries and storage media), gold (chips, data transfer), silver (photovoltaics), and copper (power lines, chargers), to name just a few.
And among the biggest beneficiaries are mines that produce the corresponding commodities.
In the webinar„Rohstoffe und wirtschaftliche Zukunftsthemen – Minen als Wirtschaftsmotor?“ (available in German) we show you how these topics are intertwined, take a look into the future, explain why “junior mines” are interesting, and present an opportunity to participate.
To view the recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkuc-0QKBOQ&t=3s
Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Before making an investment decision, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the official prospectus and the fund's key information document.
An Interview with Dana Kallasch – Focus on Gold
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Inflation, Debt, Geopolitics: Gold remains one of the world’s most discussed asset classes. But what truly drives its price? In this interview, commodity expert Dana Kallasch explains which macroeconomic and geopolitical trends are currently shaping the gold market—and why silver could become an underestimated leverage component in a portfolio.
Macro Trends: From Inflation to Industry
“A bit of everything,” answers Dana Kallasch when asked which factors currently determine the gold price. “Although interest rates have hardly had an influence recently.”
Gold remains primarily one thing: a safe haven and a statement. This applies equally to private and institutional investors.
On the buyer side, two strong trends stand out: On one hand, central banks around the world are expanding their gold reserves to support currencies and strengthen financial buffers. China and Poland are particularly active. On the other hand, private demand for physical gold, bars, and coins is also rising.
But gold is no longer just a crisis currency. “The industrial sector is currently creating an entirely new market for precious metals,” emphasizes Kallasch. “Whether AI, the energy transition, or big-data centers—none of it works without gold, silver, and other rare raw materials.”
Industry giants like Apple or Nvidia each consume around eight to ten tons of gold per year, a figure that impressively illustrates structural demand.
Geopolitics and De-Dollarization: Gold as a Power Instrument
Geopolitical tensions also play a central role. “The stable purchases by central banks and the ongoing demand for physical gold are clear indicators,” says Kallasch. The war in Ukraine, as well as the gradual process of de-dollarization, have further increased gold’s prominence.
Particularly striking: China’s massive buildup of physical gold reserves. “China wants to replace the U.S. as the world’s leading power in every respect,” says Kallasch.
To do so, the People’s Republic must back its currency reserves with gold. While Western industrialized nations secure 60 to 75% of their reserves with gold, China is currently estimated at under 10%. The catch-up potential is correspondingly large, as are its export restrictions: a licensing system effectively limits gold exports to zero.
Gold: Attractive Despite Tight Supply
For Western investors, gold remains highly attractive in Kallasch’s view. “Gold is needed in many different forms—as a safety reserve, but also in growing quantities industrially.”
China’s minimal exports have been known for years and don’t make the metal riskier, but rather more valuable. “Scarcity supports the price, and a high gold price also enables the development of smaller deposits worldwide.”
While annual new production stood at 3,100 tons at a gold price of USD 1,200 per ounce ten years ago, today it is only around 400 tons more—about 3,600 tons at a price of over USD 4,000 per ounce. A very moderate increase of only about 1.5% per year despite massively higher prices.
Strategies in Focus: Sustainable Mining Investments
As fund managers, the team at Commodity Capital AG invests directly in mining projects worldwide. “Economic metrics such as gold content, extraction costs, and infrastructure are vital—but so are soft factors: local community acceptance, the management team, and the approach to sustainability.” ESG is a sensitive topic in the raw materials sector. “For us, sustainability isn’t an either-or, but a win-win and an important part of risk management.” Kallasch cites several examples:
Environment: More and more mines rely on solar or hydropower. In many countries, new licenses are only issued when a reforestation plan is submitted.
Social: Fair wages prevent exploitation and promote stability.
Governance: Clear anti-corruption guidelines reduce long-term costs and risks.
Kallasch emphasizes: “We don’t invest in politically unstable regions or countries with child labor. For that reason, most African countries are not an option.” Instead, the focus is on North America, Australia, Europe, and selected projects in Central and South America.
Silver: The Underrated Precious Metal
Beyond gold, Kallasch sees great potential in silver. “About 60% of global silver production flows into industrial applications—around 35% into electronics, 25% into photovoltaics.”
Silver is both a store of value and the “poor man’s gold.”
The market is tight: global silver consumption has exceeded mine and recycling production for years; inventories are shrinking rapidly. “Limited resources with rising demand—that’s a classic, lucrative combination,” says Kallasch.
Pure silver mines are rare, but that rarity makes silver particularly exciting in the long term.
Outlook: Gold at $10,000?
What comes next? “Anyone who still has little or no precious metal in their portfolio is not too late,” says Kallasch. “We’re only at the beginning of a new commodity rally.”
Her fund focuses on mining stocks rather than physical gold—an additive, diversifying component for any portfolio.
And regarding the famous ‘Gold at $10,000’ prediction? “An ounce of gold will certainly reach 10,000 US dollars,” she says with a smile. “Only when—that’s the interesting question.”
Conclusion: Gold and silver remain a fascinating interplay of emotion, geopolitics, and industrial necessity. Between safe haven, strategic currency reserve, and future-critical raw material, they reflect the tectonic shifts in the global economy and will continue to occupy both investors and analysts for years to come.
Webinar Recording: "From Gold to the Sun – Commodities as the Foundation of the Energy Transition"
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Thank you very much for participating in our recent webinar. Here you will find a concise summary of all the documents and key content:
Webinar recording (in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCBCaLNPm3k&t=65s
Presentation by hep solar: Download presentation
Further information: https://www.hep.global
Presentation by Commodity Capital: Download presentation
Further information: https://www.commodity-capital.com
Key findings:
• Current trends and price developments in the commodities market
• Importance of critical commodities for solar and storage projects
• Investment approaches to future commodities, solar parks, and battery storage
• Market assessments by Dana Kallasch and Sabine Spohr
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss the topic in more detail. We look forward to further exchanges.
Kind regards
Sabine Spohr & Dana Kallasch
Webinar Recording: "Is It Possible to Invest Conservatively and Largely Independent of the Stock Market in the Commodities Sector?"
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
MISSED THE WEBINAR? | Is it possible to invest conservatively and almost independently of the stock market in the commodities sector?
We are pleased to announce that the recording of the webinar “Is it possible to invest conservatively and almost independently of the stock market in the commodities sector?” is now available. For those who were unable to attend live, this is an excellent opportunity to learn more about the distinctive investment strategy of Structured Solutions Resource Income Funds.
In this webinar, Michael Kopf, Head of Sales for Germany and Austria at Commodity Capital AG, explains how you can invest in innovative investment strategies that stabilize your portfolio while opening up attractive return opportunities.
Speaker: Michael Kopf, Head of Sales for Germany & Austria, Commodity Capital AG
Moderator: Dana Kallasch, CEO, Commodity Capital AG
Fund in focus: Structured Solutions Resource Income Fund
(WKN: A2AT4F | ISIN: LU1510784512)
To view the recording (in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Js7FwEEBnQ
If you want to rethink bonds, tune in. We look forward to your participation!
Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Before making an investment decision, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the official prospectus and the fund's key information document.
Webinar Recording: "Commodities as the Key to the Energy Transition: Gold, Silver, Lithium, and Mining Stocks"
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Dana Kallasch, CEO of Commodity Capital AG, joined the speakers at the Alpha Star webinar “Out of the Box – Investing Beyond the Classics,” where she discussed the future of precious metals.
Learn how new technologies and innovative approaches are changing gold and silver. Find out why these markets continue to offer strategic opportunities for investors – and how the Commodity Capital Global Mining Fund is specifically benefiting from this.
The recording is available here (49:00, only in German): https://next.edudip.com/de/webinar-aufzeichnung/804e10f4-d5d5-4414-8d6e-1ee44654b057
Legal notice: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Before making any investment decision, please consult a qualified financial advisor and review the official prospectus and key investor information document for the fund.
Returns on a Record Trajectory: The Global Mining Fund Sets New Standards
Note: This text is a translation from the original language, German.
Record-Breaking Returns: The Global Mining Fund Sets New Standards
The Sharpe Ratio has long been considered one of the most important metrics for investors. It relates an investment’s excess return to its risk. In theory, it provides guidance on whether an investment “paid off” — the higher the value, the more attractive the investment.
In practice, however, the metric often reaches its limits. A recent example comes from the Commodity Capital Global Mining Fund: on a monthly basis, it recently achieved a Sharpe Ratio of 97.65. At first glance, this figure seems spectacular — but on closer inspection, it mainly reveals how distorted short-term figures can be.
Strong Performance Over the Long Term
Viewed over the long term, the fund delivers convincing performance: over twelve months, its Sharpe Ratio stands at 4.63 — a value considered exceptional in the fund industry. This figure demonstrates that the fund combines high returns with controlled risk, delivering such a strong risk-adjusted performance that even conservative investors take notice.
For comparison: typical funds have Sharpe Ratios between 0.5 and 2.0; values above 3 are already considered outstanding. At 4.63, the Commodity Capital Global Mining Fund is well above this benchmark, positioning itself as a leader in commodity and mining investments.
Caution with Short-Term Figures
Monthly figures like 97.65 can easily lead to misunderstandings. They may suggest near-magical excess returns or be misleading — distracting from the fund’s actual, sustainable performance. Longer-term perspectives — over one to three years or more — give a more realistic picture of performance, highlighting consistent management and a robust strategy.
Conclusion: An Investment That Delivers
The Commodity Capital Global Mining Fund is a prime example that excellent performance isn’t always reflected in a single metric. With an annual Sharpe Ratio of 4.63, it delivers a stable, risk-adjusted excess return, making it an attractive option for investors seeking long-term value growth in commodity and mining equities.
In short: Those who look beyond short-term figures will recognize a fund with clear strengths, above-average performance, and sustainable risk control.