Inflation, Debt, Geopolitics: Gold remains one of the world’s most discussed asset classes. But what truly drives its price? In this interview, commodity expert Dana Kallasch explains which macroeconomic and geopolitical trends are currently shaping the gold market—and why silver could become an underestimated leverage component in a portfolio.
Macro Trends: From Inflation to Industry
“A bit of everything,” answers Dana Kallasch when asked which factors currently determine the gold price. “Although interest rates have hardly had an influence recently.”
Gold remains primarily one thing: a safe haven and a statement. This applies equally to private and institutional investors.
On the buyer side, two strong trends stand out: On one hand, central banks around the world are expanding their gold reserves to support currencies and strengthen financial buffers. China and Poland are particularly active. On the other hand, private demand for physical gold, bars, and coins is also rising.
But gold is no longer just a crisis currency. “The industrial sector is currently creating an entirely new market for precious metals,” emphasizes Kallasch. “Whether AI, the energy transition, or big-data centers—none of it works without gold, silver, and other rare raw materials.”
Industry giants like Apple or Nvidia each consume around eight to ten tons of gold per year, a figure that impressively illustrates structural demand.
Geopolitics and De-Dollarization: Gold as a Power Instrument
Geopolitical tensions also play a central role. “The stable purchases by central banks and the ongoing demand for physical gold are clear indicators,” says Kallasch. The war in Ukraine, as well as the gradual process of de-dollarization, have further increased gold’s prominence.
Particularly striking: China’s massive buildup of physical gold reserves. “China wants to replace the U.S. as the world’s leading power in every respect,” says Kallasch.
To do so, the People’s Republic must back its currency reserves with gold. While Western industrialized nations secure 60 to 75% of their reserves with gold, China is currently estimated at under 10%. The catch-up potential is correspondingly large, as are its export restrictions: a licensing system effectively limits gold exports to zero.
Gold: Attractive Despite Tight Supply
For Western investors, gold remains highly attractive in Kallasch’s view. “Gold is needed in many different forms—as a safety reserve, but also in growing quantities industrially.”
China’s minimal exports have been known for years and don’t make the metal riskier, but rather more valuable. “Scarcity supports the price, and a high gold price also enables the development of smaller deposits worldwide.”
While annual new production stood at 3,100 tons at a gold price of USD 1,200 per ounce ten years ago, today it is only around 400 tons more—about 3,600 tons at a price of over USD 4,000 per ounce. A very moderate increase of only about 1.5% per year despite massively higher prices.
Strategies in Focus: Sustainable Mining Investments
As fund managers, the team at Commodity Capital AG invests directly in mining projects worldwide. “Economic metrics such as gold content, extraction costs, and infrastructure are vital—but so are soft factors: local community acceptance, the management team, and the approach to sustainability.” ESG is a sensitive topic in the raw materials sector. “For us, sustainability isn’t an either-or, but a win-win and an important part of risk management.” Kallasch cites several examples:
Environment: More and more mines rely on solar or hydropower. In many countries, new licenses are only issued when a reforestation plan is submitted.
Social: Fair wages prevent exploitation and promote stability.
Governance: Clear anti-corruption guidelines reduce long-term costs and risks.
Kallasch emphasizes: “We don’t invest in politically unstable regions or countries with child labor. For that reason, most African countries are not an option.” Instead, the focus is on North America, Australia, Europe, and selected projects in Central and South America.
Silver: The Underrated Precious Metal
Beyond gold, Kallasch sees great potential in silver. “About 60% of global silver production flows into industrial applications—around 35% into electronics, 25% into photovoltaics.”
Silver is both a store of value and the “poor man’s gold.”
The market is tight: global silver consumption has exceeded mine and recycling production for years; inventories are shrinking rapidly. “Limited resources with rising demand—that’s a classic, lucrative combination,” says Kallasch.
Pure silver mines are rare, but that rarity makes silver particularly exciting in the long term.
Outlook: Gold at $10,000?
What comes next? “Anyone who still has little or no precious metal in their portfolio is not too late,” says Kallasch. “We’re only at the beginning of a new commodity rally.”
Her fund focuses on mining stocks rather than physical gold—an additive, diversifying component for any portfolio.
And regarding the famous ‘Gold at $10,000’ prediction? “An ounce of gold will certainly reach 10,000 US dollars,” she says with a smile. “Only when—that’s the interesting question.”
Conclusion: Gold and silver remain a fascinating interplay of emotion, geopolitics, and industrial necessity. Between safe haven, strategic currency reserve, and future-critical raw material, they reflect the tectonic shifts in the global economy and will continue to occupy both investors and analysts for years to come.